Time to worry?

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Its 5:30 am EST on a Thursday morning.  China's stock market is halted again. Its shaping up to be another ugly session here in the US. 

Time to recap everyone's favorite "worry" list:

  • Mayhem in the commodities complex (e.g., oil) which has led to a meltdown in the high yield markets.
  • The blackbox basket case that's China and the associated industrial recession.
  • The Fed tightening and the US dollar strength, although causality here is unclear.
  • The market internals, which are not pretty; When you strip out FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) there's not a lot to cheer about.  Even retail is hurting due to an unusually warm winter.
  • The folks on CNBC did some pattern-matching and found striking similarities between 2016 and 2008. 

Certainly no dearth of issues.

If a large commodity company files for bankruptcy, are there banks that could be vulnerable?  Deutsche Bank? 

Are we due for a 20% correction? I don't think anyone really knows. 
That said, its much easier to have a fundamental view on individual stocks where one can project cash flows and make a reasoned argument on what the shares are worth.


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